Bon c'est quand que le topic "ça monte, ça monte" va remplacer "ça baisse, ça baisse" ?
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Bon c'est quand que le topic "ça monte, ça monte" va remplacer "ça baisse, ça baisse" ?
taupe91 a écrit:Bon c'est quand que le topic "ça monte, ça monte" va remplacer "ça baisse, ça baisse" ?
According to the GLD prospectus, the bullion banks can create or redeem units for as little as 10bps (0.10%). Even with transport and insurance costs (which are arguably lower for large transactions and large international banks), there is a clear arbitrage opportunity for the bullion banks when the Shanghai premium (or any other physical gold price premium in emerging markets) is as large as it has been recently.
Moreover, because of the intense demand for physical gold we have seen so far this year, it is very probable that the bullion banks themselves are in a shortage of physical gold, hence the need to use the GLD reserves.
Indeed, since 2005, there has been a strong negative correlation between GLD flows and the Shanghai Premium (-53%) (Figure 4 above). This means that large outflows (redemptions) from the GLD are typically associated with high premiums in the Shanghai gold market. This association has been particularly marked since the beginning of the year, with historically large outflows corresponding to an all-time high in the Shanghai premium.
To conclude, the evidence presented here suggests that, contrary to what has been stated in the financial press, the flows out of the SPDR Gold Trust may have been generated by the bullion banks to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity in the physical market. This arbitrage opportunity occurred because of the intense demand for gold stemming from Asia and the inability of traditional suppliers to provide this gold (hence the large Shanghai premium). We believe that this activity further supports our hypothesis that there is a lack of availability of physical gold and an obvious dislocation between the physical and paper gold markets.
In these conditions, it is not hard to imagine that prior to April 15, the bullion dealers, with their large resources, were tempted to sell large amounts of gold futures in order to lower the spot price and make the arbitrage even more profitable by increasing the spread and sparking a tsunami of buying in Asia.
To us, this is clearly a bullish signal for gold.
Stephane a écrit:
Roubini
Dan a écrit:L ignorance presque totale de Roubini en ce qui concerne l'or m'avait choqué.
Stephane a écrit:
Mais cela n'empêche pas Roubini comme Sapir d'être très pertinents lorsqu'ils se cantonnent à des sujets qu'ils connaissent mieux que l'or
iron man a écrit:Ca baisse sans arrêt. Raison de plus de ne plus parler de l'or. Il y a mieux à faire avec son argent que de le perdre ou d'espérer qu'il montera dans 100 ans.
Commentaire très utile, comme tout les autres.
Allez, ne perds plus ton temps avec nous, monte des boites, empaille des sangliers, fais ce que tu veux, mais va jouer ailleurs.
dbolland a écrit:Ca baisse sans arrêt. Raison de plus de ne plus parler de l'or. Il y a mieux à faire avec son argent que de le perdre ou d'espérer qu'il montera dans 100 ans.
Je vois que la vérité t'embête. Tu espères quoi de ton or? Perdre 30% de ton capital? Ou que tes arrière petits enfants en profitent? Je vois pas ce qui est malin là-dedans, franchement.
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