Un article éclairant du
Wall Street Journal sur la stratégie actuelle de l'oligarchie américaine à propos du conflit thaï.
Bon je passe sur les éléments caricaturaux désormais habituels pour décrire les camps en présence, ce n'est pas le plus intéressant...
Ce qui est intéressant c'est que Wall Street semble se résigner doucement à une perte (au moins partielle) du pouvoir par leurs marionnettes du clan Shinawatra.
Aujourd'hui ils roulent ouvertement pour l'alternative d'une solution négociée, portée par Abhisit.Selon eux une alliance finalement entre Pheu Thaï et Parti Démocrate dans le cadre de l'initiative Abhisit pourrait même leur être utile afin de "tempérer" certaines des "pires impulsions populistes" présentes dans le camp des chemises rouges...
Thailand's Aristocratic Dead-Enders
The royalists who can't win an election stage a judicial coup.
Royalist forces struck another blow against Thai democracy Wednesday when the country's Constitutional Court staged a judicial coup and removed Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra from office. Her supposed crime: having impure motives when she transferred a bureaucrat three years ago. For the third time in a decade, this unaccountable institution controlled by the aristocracy has removed an elected leader for dubious reasons.
The justices' meddling rewards the bad behavior of the ironically named royalist Democrat Party. It boycotted the general election in February after several of its leaders led street protests aimed at overthrowing democracy and installing a ruling council made up of the country's elite.
In March, the Constitutional Court nullified the result of the election on the grounds that protesters prevented it from being held on the same day across the country. The opposition has blocked a revote, leaving the country in political limbo with a caretaker government. Now that the court has removed Ms. Yingluck and nine other ministers from office, Deputy Prime Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan will soldier on. But the National Anti-Corruption Commission might remove him too.
The situation would be laughable if it weren't so dangerous. The conflict has emboldened extremists on both sides who threaten to start a civil war. That would pit rural parts of the country, particularly in the north, that support the populist Shinawatra family against the pro-royalist urban areas and the south. The pro-Shinawatra forces won the last five elections, so new elections are unlikely to change the outcome. The military, which last staged a coup in 2006, is divided and reluctant to seize power again.
That leaves the aristocracy with institutional power centers guaranteed by an undemocratic constitution created by the military junta in 2007. The Anti-Corruption Commission and several other bodies can also stymie the will of the voters, but the Constitutional Court is the key because it has blocked all attempts so far to revise the constitution.
It appears the only near-term solution that will preserve Thailand's fragile democracy and avoid bloodshed is a negotiated settlement. The Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva opened the door to talks two weeks ago, and Ms. Yingluck welcomed the move. If the aristocracy's prerogatives are guaranteed and the Democrats given a few posts, it's possible that the conflict can be shelved for a few more years.
However, such a peace will remain precarious because the two sides hold fundamentally incompatible visions for Thailand's future. Ms. Yingluck's brother Thaksin Shinawatra upset the country's feudal order when he mobilized ordinary Thais to demand real power in 2001. That genie can't be put back in the bottle, even if the Shinawatras are purged from politics.
The Constitutional Court's decision this week is a last gasp of the old regime, discrediting itself as it fights to hold back the forces of democracy. One can hope that a wiser leader will emerge from the royalist camp who will realize this and stop trying to overthrow democracy. While the Democrats may be unable to win elections in the near term, they can still wield considerable influence and restrain the worst populist impulses of the pro-Shinawatra camp. For now, though, it appears the aristocracy is not ready to give up its claim to a divine right to rule Thailand and accept the more modest role of loyal opposition.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 0574302518Edit:A la lecture de ceci, la
politique thaïlandaise des États-unis semble plutôt claire.
Ils
veulent :
- obtenir l'abrogation de la Constitution de 2007, la dissolution de la Cour constitutionnelle, de la Commission nationale anti-corruption, peut-être même de l'Armée (trop divisée selon eux) et de toutes les autres agences non-gouvernementales susceptibles d'entraver la marche vers le traité transpacifique,
- favoriser l'arrivée au pouvoir le plus tôt possible d'un gouvernement "d'union nationale" en s'appuyant sur le "plan Abhisit", ce qui permettrait de réhabiliter progressivement le clan Thaksin qui reste leur meilleur cheval pour diriger la Thaïlande,
- contrer aussi bien l'opposition extra-parlementaire que les franges les moins thaksinistes et les plus radicales et progressistes des "chemises rouges".
En conséquence,
l'intérêt des thaïlandais serait évidemment l'inverse :
- protéger la Constitution actuelle qui pour le moment empêche encore l'accord avec les USA, et que Yingluck avait pour mission de torpiller,
- résister à la tentation d'élections trop rapides et privilégier certaines réformes préalables,
- poursuivre la dé-thaksinisation du régime ; confiscation des passeports de la famille Shinawatra et de leurs comparses, nationalisation de leurs entreprises,
- obtenir la dissolution du Pheu Thaï et de tous les autres partis dirigés directement par les Shinawatra, mais aussi la dissolution et le désarmement de la Police Royale (l'Armée peut très bien organiser en son sein une force de gendarmerie en remplacement),
- renationaliser le pétrole et le gaz thaïlandais afin de recouvrer un minimum de souveraineté,
- repousser toute forme "d'union nationale" parrainée par la CIA et Abhisit, et rechercher au contraire les conditions d'une véritable réconciliation entre les franges militantes de l'opposition comme des rouges qui sont les futurs "dindons de la farce" du plan en train de se mettre en place (pour moi la véritable "
3ème force" est là").
